Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | APP -310 GASO +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +15 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | APP -7.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (+16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -6.2 (+8.8) | 144.1 (+18.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -7.3 (+7.7) | 147.1 (+15.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -6.2 (+8.8) | 142.1 (+20.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -6.6 (+8.4) | 143.4 (+19.6) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | APP 81 – 65 GASO |
| Feb 26, 2025 | GASO 61 – 59 APP |
| Feb 20, 2025 | APP 79 – 74 GASO |
| Mar 9, 2024 | APP 85 – 80 GASO |
| Feb 3, 2024 | APP 85 – 84 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 7-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 80.3 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#191) | -6.4 (#267) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#166) | -0.75 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#177) | -1.19 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#175) | 0.454 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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