Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | GASO +105 APP -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +16 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -2.1 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -3.2 (-12.8) | 136.8 (+9.2) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -1.9 (-14.1) | 140.4 (+5.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -2.5 (-13.5) | 138.9 (+7.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -2.0 (-14.0) | 137.5 (+8.5) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | APP 89 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 26, 2025 | GASO 61 – 59 APP |
| Feb 20, 2025 | APP 79 – 74 GASO |
| Mar 9, 2024 | APP 85 – 80 GASO |
| Feb 3, 2024 | APP 85 – 84 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-16 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.3 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#270) | -1.6 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#234) | 0.06 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#260) | -0.17 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#273) | 0.509 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 64.2% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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