Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | GASO +100 APP -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +2 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | APP -2.7 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -2.1 (+4.1) | 136.5 (-16.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -3.0 (+5.0) | 139.3 (-19.3) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -1.8 (+3.8) | 136.4 (-16.4) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -2.3 (+4.3) | 136.6 (-16.6) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | APP 89 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 12, 2026 | APP 81 – 65 GASO |
| Feb 20, 2025 | APP 79 – 74 GASO |
| Mar 9, 2024 | APP 85 – 80 GASO |
| Feb 3, 2024 | APP 85 – 84 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 64.6 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#262) | -0.0 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#230) | 0.05 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#251) | 0.08 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#222) | 0.529 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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