Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | APP -400 GASO +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | APP -10.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (+16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -8.5 (-3.5) | 137.1 (+15.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -10.9 (-5.9) | 138.0 (+15.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -8.1 (-3.1) | 135.2 (+17.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -8.9 (-3.9) | 136.3 (+16.7) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | APP 89 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 12, 2026 | APP 81 – 65 GASO |
| Feb 26, 2025 | GASO 61 – 59 APP |
| Mar 9, 2024 | APP 85 – 80 GASO |
| Feb 3, 2024 | APP 85 – 84 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#147) | -6.2 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#158) | -0.61 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#152) | -1.07 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#112) | 0.480 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.