Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | GASO +500 APP -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +1 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -13.2 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+26.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -12.3 (+11.3) | 147.7 (+21.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -10.2 (+9.2) | 146.2 (+22.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -12.2 (+11.2) | 144.4 (+24.6) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -11.6 (+10.6) | 146.4 (+22.6) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | APP 89 – 74 GASO |
| Feb 12, 2026 | APP 81 – 65 GASO |
| Feb 26, 2025 | GASO 61 – 59 APP |
| Feb 20, 2025 | APP 79 – 74 GASO |
| Mar 9, 2024 | APP 85 – 80 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 6-7 | 15-0 |
| Away | 2-14 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#315) | 7.3 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#319) | 1.54 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#301) | 1.62 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#323) | 0.565 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 15.1% |
Game Analysis
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