Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +14 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -5.2 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (+34.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -3.1 (-10.9) | 148.1 (+31.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -3.6 (-10.4) | 149.4 (+30.6) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -1.9 (-12.1) | 144.8 (+35.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -2.1 (-11.9) | 145.6 (+34.4) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | MISS 80 – 79 ALA |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ALA 93 – 74 MISS |
| Jan 15, 2025 | MISS 74 – 64 ALA |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ALA 103 – 88 MISS |
| Jan 4, 2023 | ALA 84 – 62 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#100) | 13.6 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#100) | 2.27 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#100) | 2.94 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#143) | 0.641 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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