Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | MISS +260 ALA -325 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +19 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -7.8 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -4.6 (-14.4) | 166.2 (+0.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -5.2 (-13.8) | 156.6 (+10.4) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -5.7 (-13.3) | 153.7 (+13.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -7.5 (-11.5) | 157.9 (+9.1) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | MISS 80 – 79 ALA |
| Jan 15, 2025 | MISS 74 – 64 ALA |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ALA 103 – 88 MISS |
| Jan 4, 2023 | ALA 84 – 62 MISS |
| Feb 10, 2022 | ALA 97 – 83 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-9 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 91.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 82.7 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#74) | 19.0 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#81) | 3.16 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#82) | 4.09 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#107) | 0.643 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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