Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -700 MISS +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +22 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -14.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -11.6 (+10.4) | 149.2 (-3.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -11.2 (+10.8) | 149.8 (-3.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -11.9 (+10.1) | 148.3 (-2.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -9.9 (+12.1) | 145.6 (+0.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | MISS 80 – 79 ALA |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ALA 93 – 74 MISS |
| Jan 15, 2025 | MISS 74 – 64 ALA |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ALA 103 – 88 MISS |
| Feb 10, 2022 | ALA 97 – 83 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 3-15 |
| Home | 15-0 | 7-10 |
| Away | 9-3 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#8) | 6.1 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.70 (#5) | 0.84 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.56 (#6) | 1.76 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.675 (#2) | 0.548 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 47.1 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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