Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -700 MISS +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +1 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -11.7 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -9.3 (-10.3) | 160.3 (-1.3) | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -9.3 (-10.3) | 171.5 (-12.5) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -11.2 (-12.2) | 162.3 (-3.3) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -9.6 (-10.6) | 158.7 (+0.3) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | ALA 93 – 74 MISS |
| Jan 15, 2025 | MISS 74 – 64 ALA |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ALA 103 – 88 MISS |
| Jan 4, 2023 | ALA 84 – 62 MISS |
| Feb 10, 2022 | ALA 97 – 83 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-9 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.2 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.7 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 19.7 (#13) | 8.0 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#14) | 1.00 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.06 (#15) | 1.47 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#7) | 0.505 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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