Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -900 MISS +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +10 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -10.0 (-20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.6 (-27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -8.3 (-18.3) | 157.2 (-19.2) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -9.1 (-19.1) | 158.3 (-20.3) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -8.4 (-18.4) | 156.9 (-18.9) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -8.0 (-18.0) | 156.3 (-18.3) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | MISS 80 – 79 ALA |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ALA 93 – 74 MISS |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ALA 103 – 88 MISS |
| Jan 4, 2023 | ALA 84 – 62 MISS |
| Feb 10, 2022 | ALA 97 – 83 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.7 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 21.7 (#6) | 15.5 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.21 (#5) | 3.72 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.49 (#6) | 5.03 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.713 (#2) | 0.642 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 45.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 15.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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