Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Over |
| Money | MISS +188 ALA -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +15 | 191 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -9.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -7.0 (-8.0) | 162.9 (+28.1) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -8.5 (-6.5) | 172.3 (+18.7) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -5.7 (-9.3) | 163.9 (+27.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -7.2 (-7.8) | 162.4 (+28.6) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | MISS 80 – 79 ALA |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ALA 93 – 74 MISS |
| Jan 15, 2025 | MISS 74 – 64 ALA |
| Jan 4, 2023 | ALA 84 – 62 MISS |
| Feb 10, 2022 | ALA 97 – 83 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 90.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#82) | 20.0 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#32) | 2.49 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#37) | 3.13 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#44) | 0.632 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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