Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -17.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | TOW -4000 W&M +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +15 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -21.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -14.6 (+0.4) | 135.2 (-0.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -15.4 (-0.4) | 135.5 (-0.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -16.5 (-1.5) | 135.9 (-0.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -17.0 (-2.0) | 134.4 (+0.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | W&M 84 – 70 TOW |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TOW 88 – 73 W&M |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TOW 67 – 56 W&M |
| Feb 16, 2024 | TOW 61 – 52 W&M |
| Feb 14, 2023 | W&M 68 – 66 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-2 | 4-10 |
| Away | 11-5 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.4 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#96) | -12.4 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#94) | -2.13 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#92) | -2.94 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#91) | 0.398 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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