Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | W&M +280 TOW -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +9 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -7.6 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (-19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -7.8 (-1.2) | 132.5 (-19.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -8.5 (-0.5) | 130.5 (-17.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -7.4 (-1.6) | 131.5 (-18.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -7.3 (-1.7) | 132.9 (-19.9) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | W&M 84 – 70 TOW |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TOW 88 – 73 W&M |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TOW 67 – 56 W&M |
| Feb 14, 2023 | W&M 68 – 66 TOW |
| Jan 28, 2023 | TOW 92 – 73 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-6 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 64.2 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#313) | 1.5 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#336) | 0.35 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#332) | 0.32 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.386 (#349) | 0.525 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 39.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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