Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -900 W&M +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +19 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -11.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+32.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -14.2 (+4.8) | 134.0 (+31.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -12.3 (+6.7) | 136.6 (+28.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -11.1 (+7.9) | 136.0 (+29.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -10.7 (+8.3) | 136.3 (+28.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | W&M 84 – 70 TOW |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TOW 88 – 73 W&M |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TOW 67 – 56 W&M |
| Feb 16, 2024 | TOW 61 – 52 W&M |
| Feb 14, 2023 | W&M 68 – 66 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-2 | 11-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#154) | -7.5 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#118) | -0.78 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#125) | -1.30 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#149) | 0.471 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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