Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | W&M +450 TOW -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -6.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -7.9 (+9.9) | 135.6 (-1.6) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -6.2 (+8.2) | 140.1 (-6.1) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -6.4 (+8.4) | 140.8 (-6.8) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -6.8 (+8.8) | 139.1 (-5.1) | 26% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | W&M 84 – 70 TOW |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TOW 88 – 73 W&M |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TOW 67 – 56 W&M |
| Feb 16, 2024 | TOW 61 – 52 W&M |
| Jan 28, 2023 | TOW 92 – 73 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-5 | 10-2 |
| Away | 1-14 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#317) | 0.8 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#290) | 0.36 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#311) | 0.38 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#272) | 0.507 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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