Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -275 W&M +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +15 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -6.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -7.5 (+7.5) | 143.5 (+17.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -4.8 (+10.2) | 142.1 (+18.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -5.1 (+9.9) | 141.9 (+19.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -5.4 (+9.6) | 143.0 (+18.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | W&M 84 – 70 TOW |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TOW 67 – 56 W&M |
| Feb 16, 2024 | TOW 61 – 52 W&M |
| Feb 14, 2023 | W&M 68 – 66 TOW |
| Jan 28, 2023 | TOW 92 – 73 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 9-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#159) | -2.9 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#124) | -0.09 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#133) | -0.09 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#73) | 0.510 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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