Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | TOW -800 W&M +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +11 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -10.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -9.6 (+1.4) | 131.4 (-8.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -9.6 (+1.4) | 130.6 (-7.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -10.2 (+0.8) | 131.7 (-8.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -9.6 (+1.4) | 132.3 (-9.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | W&M 84 – 70 TOW |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TOW 88 – 73 W&M |
| Feb 16, 2024 | TOW 61 – 52 W&M |
| Feb 14, 2023 | W&M 68 – 66 TOW |
| Jan 28, 2023 | TOW 92 – 73 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-2 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#156) | -9.1 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#152) | -1.92 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#154) | -2.20 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#156) | 0.405 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 40.6% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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