Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +2 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -9.4 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+29.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -5.7 (+7.7) | 139.0 (+29.0) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -5.4 (+7.4) | 136.8 (+31.2) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -6.0 (+8.0) | 136.5 (+31.5) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -6.2 (+8.2) | 136.7 (+31.3) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2023 | HOU 80 – 65 SMU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | HOU 87 – 53 SMU |
| Feb 27, 2022 | HOU 75 – 61 SMU |
| Jan 31, 2021 | HOU 70 – 48 SMU |
| Jan 4, 2021 | HOU 74 – 60 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 32-6 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 15-3 |
| Home | 17-1 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 9-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 58.8 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#62) | 21.0 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#65) | 3.27 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#62) | 4.52 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#55) | 0.643 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 42.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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