Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -450 SMU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +22 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -10.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (-21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -10.7 (+11.3) | 138.9 (-20.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -10.0 (+12.0) | 135.0 (-17.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -11.7 (+10.3) | 137.3 (-19.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -11.3 (+10.7) | 137.3 (-19.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2023 | HOU 80 – 65 SMU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | HOU 87 – 53 SMU |
| Feb 27, 2022 | HOU 75 – 61 SMU |
| Feb 10, 2022 | SMU 85 – 83 HOU |
| Jan 4, 2021 | HOU 74 – 60 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 11-6 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 7-4 |
| Home | 15-0 | 6-2 |
| Away | 5-3 | 5-2 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 18.9 (#6) | 10.8 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.06 (#3) | 2.37 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.94 (#3) | 3.24 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.680 (#1) | 0.562 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 42.1 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 41.3% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.1% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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