Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +14 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -12.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -11.8 (+2.2) | 141.2 (-5.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -13.2 (+0.8) | 140.4 (-4.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -11.5 (+2.5) | 143.5 (-7.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -11.4 (+2.6) | 143.0 (-7.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2023 | HOU 80 – 65 SMU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | HOU 87 – 53 SMU |
| Feb 10, 2022 | SMU 85 – 83 HOU |
| Jan 31, 2021 | HOU 70 – 48 SMU |
| Jan 4, 2021 | HOU 74 – 60 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-4 |
| Home | 16-1 | 17-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 9-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.8 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 19.7 (#4) | 9.7 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#18) | 1.82 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#15) | 2.14 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#11) | 0.585 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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