Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -10000 SMU +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +34 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -27.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -23.9 (+10.1) | 133.0 (+7.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -19.3 (+14.7) | 129.9 (+10.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -20.0 (+14.0) | 132.4 (+7.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -23.4 (+10.6) | 133.5 (+6.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2023 | HOU 80 – 65 SMU |
| Feb 27, 2022 | HOU 75 – 61 SMU |
| Feb 10, 2022 | SMU 85 – 83 HOU |
| Jan 31, 2021 | HOU 70 – 48 SMU |
| Jan 4, 2021 | HOU 74 – 60 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 5-13 |
| Home | 16-2 | 7-9 |
| Away | 11-0 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 23.0 (#1) | 0.2 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.61 (#4) | -0.16 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.62 (#3) | 0.23 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#11) | 0.493 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.7% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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