Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SMU +800 HOU -1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +15 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -19.7 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (+13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -16.9 (+1.9) | 135.6 (+9.4) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -13.1 (-1.9) | 138.1 (+6.9) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -15.3 (+0.3) | 138.0 (+7.0) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -16.5 (+1.5) | 137.5 (+7.5) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 6, 2023 | HOU 87 – 53 SMU |
| Feb 27, 2022 | HOU 75 – 61 SMU |
| Feb 10, 2022 | SMU 85 – 83 HOU |
| Jan 31, 2021 | HOU 70 – 48 SMU |
| Jan 4, 2021 | HOU 74 – 60 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 33-4 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 17-1 |
| Home | 7-9 | 16-2 |
| Away | 1-11 | 11-0 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 57.5 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#203) | 21.7 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#232) | 3.47 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#211) | 4.67 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#201) | 0.637 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 41.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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