Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +10 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -14.1 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -14.3 (+4.3) | 129.6 (+4.4) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -13.1 (+3.1) | 128.7 (+5.3) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -14.5 (+4.5) | 129.6 (+4.4) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -13.5 (+3.5) | 129.9 (+4.1) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | SDSU 81 – 68 SJSU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | SDSU 69 – 66 SJSU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SDSU 71 – 68 SJSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | SDSU 72 – 64 SJSU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | SDSU 81 – 78 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 13-4 |
| Home | 7-9 | 14-1 |
| Away | 1-13 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.5 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 58.1 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#288) | 10.1 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#234) | 1.90 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#242) | 2.39 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#237) | 0.591 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 14.7% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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