Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SDSU -1600 SJSU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -15.7 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -12.6 (-9.6) | 134.2 (+4.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -15.4 (-12.4) | 134.5 (+4.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -12.1 (-9.1) | 132.5 (+6.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -13.0 (-10.0) | 133.1 (+5.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | SDSU 81 – 68 SJSU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | SDSU 69 – 66 SJSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | SDSU 72 – 64 SJSU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | SDSU 81 – 78 SJSU |
| Mar 11, 2023 | SDSU 64 – 49 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-9 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#45) | -0.0 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#45) | -0.12 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#43) | -0.29 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#30) | 0.480 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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