Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Under |
| Money | SDSU -400 SJSU +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +15 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -8.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -6.3 (+8.7) | 127.2 (-14.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -8.0 (+7.0) | 127.3 (-14.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -7.1 (+7.9) | 128.7 (-15.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -6.4 (+8.6) | 128.0 (-15.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | SDSU 81 – 68 SJSU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | SDSU 69 – 66 SJSU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SDSU 71 – 68 SJSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | SDSU 72 – 64 SJSU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | SDSU 81 – 78 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#21) | 4.8 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#13) | 1.40 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.98 (#19) | 1.60 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#6) | 0.553 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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