Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Mountain West Conference · Viejas Arena · February 28, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SDSU -21.5 Away covered
O/U 139.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total SDSU win
Actual SDSU +8 136 Won
Massey SDSU -21.9 (-13.9)
Massey Totals 140.4 (-4.4)
Bradley-Terry 98%
Weighted B-T 99%
Efficiency Plus ML SDSU -16.4 (-8.4) 139.8 (-3.8) 90%
Baseline Tuned ML SDSU -17.3 (-9.3) 137.7 (-1.7) 91%
Baseline ML SDSU -18.3 (-10.3) 138.3 (-2.3) 91%
Baseline Plus ML SDSU -18.3 (-10.3) 140.2 (-4.2) 91%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 31, 2025 SDSU 8168 SJSU
Feb 12, 2025 SDSU 6966 SJSU
Jan 29, 2025 SDSU 7168 SJSU
Jan 10, 2024 SDSU 8178 SJSU
Mar 11, 2023 SDSU 6449 SJSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SDSU SJSU
Overall 26-11 9-23
Conference 11-7 2-16
Home 14-1 6-9
Away 6-8 1-12
Neutral 6-2 2-2
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L7
Avg Pts For 73.7 68.1
Avg Pts Against 67.4 75.2
Massey 14.6 (#21) -4.0 (#242)
Bradley-Terry 2.55 (#13) -0.75 (#252)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.10 (#14) -0.84 (#242)
RPI 0.643 (#3) 0.460 (#261)
Shooting & Four Factors SDSU SJSU
FG% 45.1% 44.5%
3PT% 32.1% 35.2%
REB / G 36.7 30.4
OREB / G 10.5 7.8
AST / TO 1.13 1.27
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.2% 51.9%
TOV% 16.4% 15.5%
ORB% 31.0% 22.8%
FT Rate 28.1% 16.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.1% 54.3%
Opp TOV% 18.6% 15.9%
DRB% 72.8% 70.0%
Opp FT Rate 23.1% 24.9%

Game Analysis

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