Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +8 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -21.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -18.3 (-10.3) | 140.2 (-4.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -16.4 (-8.4) | 139.8 (-3.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -17.3 (-9.3) | 137.7 (-1.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -18.3 (-10.3) | 138.3 (-2.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | SDSU 81 – 68 SJSU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | SDSU 69 – 66 SJSU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SDSU 71 – 68 SJSU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | SDSU 81 – 78 SJSU |
| Mar 11, 2023 | SDSU 64 – 49 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 2-16 |
| Home | 14-1 | 6-9 |
| Away | 6-8 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#21) | -4.0 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#13) | -0.75 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#14) | -0.84 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#3) | 0.460 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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