Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | SJSU +500 SDSU -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +13 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -7.9 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -7.7 (-5.3) | 143.4 (+5.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -7.9 (-5.1) | 143.2 (+5.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -7.1 (-5.9) | 144.2 (+4.8) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -6.7 (-6.3) | 145.5 (+3.5) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2025 | SDSU 69 – 66 SJSU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SDSU 71 – 68 SJSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | SDSU 72 – 64 SJSU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | SDSU 81 – 78 SJSU |
| Mar 11, 2023 | SDSU 64 – 49 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 14-6 |
| Home | 6-10 | 14-2 |
| Away | 1-12 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#215) | 8.7 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#224) | 1.11 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#212) | 2.37 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#192) | 0.550 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 63.1% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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