What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
Mountain West Conference · Provident Credit Union Event Center · January 10, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SDSU -11.0 Home covered
O/U 138.5 Over
Money SJSU +430 / SDSU -600
Model Predictions
Spread Total SJSU win
Actual SDSU +3 159 Lost
Massey SDSU -10.5 (+7.5)
Massey Totals 140.4 (+18.6)
Bradley-Terry 6%
Weighted B-T 3%
Efficiency Plus ML SDSU -9.6 (+6.6) 140.1 (+18.9) 18%
Baseline Tuned ML SDSU -10.8 (+7.8) 138.7 (+20.3) 16%
Baseline ML SDSU -10.0 (+7.0) 139.7 (+19.3) 16%
Baseline Plus ML SDSU -10.4 (+7.4) 141.8 (+17.2) 15%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 31, 2025 SDSU 8168 SJSU
Feb 12, 2025 SDSU 6966 SJSU
Jan 29, 2025 SDSU 7168 SJSU
Feb 28, 2024 SDSU 7264 SJSU
Mar 11, 2023 SDSU 6449 SJSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SJSU SDSU
Overall 9-23 26-11
Conference 2-16 11-7
Home 6-9 14-1
Away 1-12 6-8
Neutral 2-2 6-2
Last 5 2-3 5-0
Streak L7 L1
Avg Pts For 68.1 73.7
Avg Pts Against 75.2 67.4
Massey -1.0 (#185) 13.7 (#25)
Bradley-Terry -0.52 (#223) 3.06 (#12)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.46 (#209) 3.83 (#11)
RPI 0.446 (#273) 0.668 (#6)
Shooting & Four Factors SJSU SDSU
FG% 45.5% 44.8%
3PT% 34.6% 32.7%
REB / G 32.1 36.7
OREB / G 7.9 10.3
AST / TO 1.29 1.22
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.1% 50.9%
TOV% 15.1% 15.7%
ORB% 22.9% 29.6%
FT Rate 18.0% 28.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.8% 46.5%
Opp TOV% 17.0% 18.8%
DRB% 70.0% 71.8%
Opp FT Rate 24.3% 21.1%

Game Analysis

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