Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | SJSU +430 SDSU -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +3 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -10.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -10.4 (+7.4) | 141.8 (+17.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -9.6 (+6.6) | 140.1 (+18.9) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -10.8 (+7.8) | 138.7 (+20.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -10.0 (+7.0) | 139.7 (+19.3) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | SDSU 81 – 68 SJSU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | SDSU 69 – 66 SJSU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SDSU 71 – 68 SJSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | SDSU 72 – 64 SJSU |
| Mar 11, 2023 | SDSU 64 – 49 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-9 | 14-1 |
| Away | 1-12 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#185) | 13.7 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#223) | 3.06 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#209) | 3.83 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#273) | 0.668 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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