Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | SJSU +380 SDSU -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +3 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -7.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -6.3 (+3.3) | 136.1 (-1.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -6.9 (+3.9) | 136.1 (-1.1) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -6.3 (+3.3) | 135.0 (+0.0) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -6.2 (+3.2) | 136.4 (-1.4) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | SDSU 81 – 68 SJSU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SDSU 71 – 68 SJSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | SDSU 72 – 64 SJSU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | SDSU 81 – 78 SJSU |
| Mar 11, 2023 | SDSU 64 – 49 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 14-6 |
| Home | 7-9 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#161) | 10.8 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#174) | 2.10 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#185) | 2.74 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#207) | 0.592 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.