Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
Mountain West Conference · Provident Credit Union Event Center · February 12, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread SDSU -9.5 Home covered
O/U 132.5 Over
Money SJSU +380 / SDSU -550
Model Predictions
Spread Total SJSU win
Actual SDSU +3 135 Lost
Massey SDSU -7.5 (+4.5)
Massey Totals 135.7 (-0.7)
Bradley-Terry 17%
Weighted B-T 9%
Efficiency Plus ML SDSU -6.9 (+3.9) 136.1 (-1.1) 22%
Baseline Tuned ML SDSU -6.3 (+3.3) 135.0 (+0.0) 24%
Baseline ML SDSU -6.2 (+3.2) 136.4 (-1.4) 27%
Baseline Plus ML SDSU -6.3 (+3.3) 136.1 (-1.1) 26%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 31, 2025 SDSU 8168 SJSU
Jan 29, 2025 SDSU 7168 SJSU
Feb 28, 2024 SDSU 7264 SJSU
Jan 10, 2024 SDSU 8178 SJSU
Mar 11, 2023 SDSU 6449 SJSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SJSU SDSU
Overall 15-20 21-10
Conference 7-13 14-6
Home 7-9 12-3
Away 3-9 6-4
Neutral 4-2 3-3
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 70.2 69.8
Avg Pts Against 73.7 65.2
Massey 0.1 (#161) 10.8 (#56)
Bradley-Terry -0.05 (#174) 2.10 (#46)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.23 (#185) 2.74 (#46)
RPI 0.485 (#207) 0.592 (#37)
Shooting & Four Factors SJSU SDSU
FG% 43.8% 43.0%
3PT% 36.2% 33.0%
REB / G 32.5 36.6
OREB / G 8.9 10.9
AST / TO 1.15 1.10
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.8% 49.2%
TOV% 15.9% 16.7%
ORB% 26.4% 31.3%
FT Rate 24.7% 21.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.6% 44.2%
Opp TOV% 16.4% 19.7%
DRB% 68.2% 69.0%
Opp FT Rate 20.0% 28.0%

Game Analysis

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