Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -5.8 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -5.2 (+9.2) | 131.3 (+0.7) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -5.6 (+9.6) | 134.2 (-2.2) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -5.1 (+9.1) | 134.8 (-2.8) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -4.9 (+8.9) | 134.9 (-2.9) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | L-MD 76 – 62 HC |
| Feb 15, 2026 | L-MD 83 – 73 HC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | HC 70 – 65 L-MD |
| Jan 2, 2025 | HC 74 – 72 L-MD |
| Feb 3, 2024 | HC 70 – 67 L-MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-9 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -14.2 (#348) | -5.2 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#338) | -0.84 (#246) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.13 (#344) | -1.08 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.380 (#346) | 0.461 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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