Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +18 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | WAKE -5.4 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-35.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -3.3 (-14.7) | 152.2 (-32.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -6.0 (-12.0) | 155.6 (-35.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -5.5 (-12.5) | 155.8 (-35.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -5.6 (-12.4) | 154.8 (-34.8) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NCSU 96 – 78 WAKE |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NCSU 70 – 57 WAKE |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NCSU 85 – 73 WAKE |
| Jan 4, 2025 | WAKE 77 – 59 NCSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | WAKE 83 – 79 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 13-7 |
| Home | 7-10 | 18-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#124) | 11.4 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#172) | 2.09 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#150) | 2.50 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#191) | 0.571 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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