Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU +155 WAKE -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +12 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -1.4 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (+27.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -1.8 (+13.8) | 138.9 (+19.1) | 41% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | WAKE -0.5 (+12.5) | 136.9 (+21.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | WAKE -2.6 (+14.6) | 137.5 (+20.5) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -1.9 (+13.9) | 136.6 (+21.4) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NCSU 96 – 78 WAKE |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NCSU 70 – 57 WAKE |
| Jan 4, 2025 | WAKE 77 – 59 NCSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | WAKE 83 – 79 NCSU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | NCSU 83 – 76 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 0-11 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#108) | 8.4 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#176) | 2.56 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#159) | 3.02 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#242) | 0.588 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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