Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE -350 NCSU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +4 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -9.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -7.3 (-3.3) | 149.1 (+12.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -8.7 (-4.7) | 147.5 (+14.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -8.6 (-4.6) | 147.4 (+14.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -9.0 (-5.0) | 149.0 (+13.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NCSU 96 – 78 WAKE |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NCSU 70 – 57 WAKE |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NCSU 85 – 73 WAKE |
| Jan 4, 2025 | WAKE 77 – 59 NCSU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | NCSU 83 – 76 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 26-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 17-2 | 12-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 10-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#31) | 7.2 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#47) | 1.46 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#39) | 1.83 (#69) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#50) | 0.536 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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