Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -125 WAKE +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +7 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -0.1 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -2.2 (+4.8) | 145.7 (+13.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -1.6 (+5.4) | 143.6 (+15.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -2.3 (+4.7) | 147.4 (+11.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -2.0 (+5.0) | 146.7 (+12.3) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NCSU 96 – 78 WAKE |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NCSU 70 – 57 WAKE |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NCSU 85 – 73 WAKE |
| Jan 4, 2025 | WAKE 77 – 59 NCSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | WAKE 83 – 79 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-15 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-5 | 17-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 10-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#74) | 11.4 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#46) | 1.82 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#47) | 2.43 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#84) | 0.596 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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