And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
Atlantic Coast Conference · Lenovo Center · December 31, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread NCSU -10.5 Home covered
O/U 159.5 Under
Money NCSU -600 / WAKE +440
Model Predictions
Spread Total NCSU win
Actual NCSU +13 127 Won
Massey NCSU -10.8 (+2.2)
Massey Totals 165.9 (-38.9)
Bradley-Terry 72%
Weighted B-T 86%
Efficiency Plus ML NCSU -7.6 (+5.4) 157.8 (-30.8) 79%
Baseline Tuned ML NCSU -9.9 (+3.1) 156.8 (-29.8) 82%
Baseline ML NCSU -11.0 (+2.0) 155.8 (-28.8) 84%
Baseline Plus ML NCSU -10.9 (+2.1) 158.2 (-31.2) 82%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 31, 2026 NCSU 9678 WAKE
Feb 22, 2025 NCSU 8573 WAKE
Jan 4, 2025 WAKE 7759 NCSU
Feb 10, 2024 WAKE 8379 NCSU
Jan 17, 2024 NCSU 8376 WAKE

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NCSU WAKE
Overall 20-14 18-17
Conference 10-8 7-11
Home 11-6 13-7
Away 6-4 2-7
Neutral 3-4 3-3
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 83.2 78.8
Avg Pts Against 76.3 76.9
Massey 16.7 (#26) 9.9 (#62)
Bradley-Terry 1.74 (#60) 1.47 (#72)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.97 (#45) 1.88 (#79)
RPI 0.560 (#80) 0.548 (#92)
Shooting & Four Factors NCSU WAKE
FG% 49.1% 45.6%
3PT% 39.1% 33.5%
REB / G 37.5 36.3
OREB / G 10.2 12.2
AST / TO 1.71 1.29
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 58.2% 52.8%
TOV% 14.1% 16.4%
ORB% 29.8% 34.4%
FT Rate 26.8% 28.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.2% 50.0%
Opp TOV% 19.7% 21.4%
DRB% 74.2% 68.5%
Opp FT Rate 27.6% 26.8%

Game Analysis

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