Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | WAKE -230 NCSU +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +18 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -1.2 (+16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -2.2 (+15.8) | 131.5 (+4.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -3.2 (+14.8) | 134.3 (+1.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -2.1 (+15.9) | 134.1 (+1.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -1.8 (+16.2) | 133.5 (+2.5) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NCSU 96 – 78 WAKE |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NCSU 70 – 57 WAKE |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NCSU 85 – 73 WAKE |
| Feb 10, 2024 | WAKE 83 – 79 NCSU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | NCSU 83 – 76 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 5-15 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#114) | 5.9 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#54) | 0.52 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#61) | 1.04 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#57) | 0.502 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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