Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE +185 NCSU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +18 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -5.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.0 (+13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -3.5 (-14.5) | 152.5 (+21.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -2.2 (-15.8) | 152.8 (+21.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -3.8 (-14.2) | 155.3 (+18.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -4.2 (-13.8) | 154.0 (+20.0) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | NCSU 70 – 57 WAKE |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NCSU 85 – 73 WAKE |
| Jan 4, 2025 | WAKE 77 – 59 NCSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | WAKE 83 – 79 NCSU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | NCSU 83 – 76 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-7 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-7 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#63) | 17.9 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#79) | 2.07 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#88) | 2.85 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#74) | 0.589 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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