Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +3 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -1.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+33.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -0.3 (+2.7) | 138.4 (+32.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -1.3 (+1.7) | 140.6 (+30.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -0.9 (+2.1) | 141.3 (+29.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -0.4 (+2.6) | 141.3 (+29.7) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | RICH 82 – 70 GMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | GMU 64 – 60 RICH |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GMU 64 – 58 RICH |
| Mar 9, 2024 | GMU 64 – 46 RICH |
| Jan 13, 2024 | RICH 77 – 70 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#106) | 6.1 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#151) | 1.20 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#133) | 1.41 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#152) | 0.559 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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