Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | RICH +140 GMU -166 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +12 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -1.4 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -1.0 (+13.0) | 138.2 (+13.8) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -1.6 (+13.6) | 135.8 (+16.2) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -1.4 (+13.4) | 137.2 (+14.8) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -1.4 (+13.4) | 137.3 (+14.7) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2025 | GMU 64 – 60 RICH |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GMU 64 – 58 RICH |
| Mar 9, 2024 | GMU 64 – 46 RICH |
| Jan 13, 2024 | RICH 77 – 70 GMU |
| Mar 8, 2023 | GMU 62 – 57 RICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-7 | 17-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#132) | 6.7 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#192) | 1.94 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#160) | 2.20 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#210) | 0.599 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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