Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -1000 RICH +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +6 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -17.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -13.6 (-7.6) | 134.0 (-12.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -12.8 (-6.8) | 135.7 (-13.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -12.6 (-6.6) | 132.0 (-10.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -14.1 (-8.1) | 133.0 (-11.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | RICH 82 – 70 GMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | GMU 64 – 60 RICH |
| Mar 9, 2024 | GMU 64 – 46 RICH |
| Jan 13, 2024 | RICH 77 – 70 GMU |
| Mar 8, 2023 | GMU 62 – 57 RICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 18-2 | 6-9 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#74) | -5.6 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#127) | -0.85 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#74) | -1.14 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#106) | 0.465 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.2% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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