Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | RICH -138 GMU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -4.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (+17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -2.8 (+4.2) | 131.8 (+15.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -1.1 (+5.9) | 133.4 (+13.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -2.3 (+4.7) | 130.9 (+16.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -2.4 (+4.6) | 132.1 (+14.9) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | RICH 82 – 70 GMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | GMU 64 – 60 RICH |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GMU 64 – 58 RICH |
| Mar 9, 2024 | GMU 64 – 46 RICH |
| Mar 8, 2023 | GMU 62 – 57 RICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#87) | 6.2 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#105) | 1.79 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#110) | 2.10 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#151) | 0.578 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 18.8% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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