Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -165 RICH +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +5 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -0.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -0.5 (+4.5) | 130.8 (-11.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -0.1 (+4.9) | 129.8 (-10.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -1.0 (+4.0) | 129.7 (-10.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -1.1 (+3.9) | 130.4 (-11.4) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | RICH 82 – 70 GMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | GMU 64 – 60 RICH |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GMU 64 – 58 RICH |
| Mar 9, 2024 | GMU 64 – 46 RICH |
| Jan 13, 2024 | RICH 77 – 70 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#138) | 1.0 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#121) | -0.03 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#123) | 0.21 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#73) | 0.501 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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