Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -150 RICH +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +18 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -0.8 (+17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -2.0 (+16.0) | 131.6 (-21.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -0.5 (+17.5) | 132.4 (-22.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -0.5 (+17.5) | 132.4 (-22.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -0.4 (+17.6) | 133.0 (-23.0) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | RICH 82 – 70 GMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | GMU 64 – 60 RICH |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GMU 64 – 58 RICH |
| Jan 13, 2024 | RICH 77 – 70 GMU |
| Mar 8, 2023 | GMU 62 – 57 RICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#99) | 7.8 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#97) | 1.85 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#98) | 1.98 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#77) | 0.578 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 5.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 12.5% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 17.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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