Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -9.0 Push |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -9.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -10.3 (-1.3) | 142.6 (+6.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -8.2 (+0.8) | 141.1 (+7.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -9.1 (-0.1) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -9.6 (-0.6) | 142.3 (+6.7) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MIA 91 – 81 GT |
| Mar 5, 2025 | GT 89 – 74 MIA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | GT 80 – 76 MIA |
| Jan 5, 2023 | GT 76 – 70 MIA |
| Jan 29, 2022 | MIA 73 – 62 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 5-15 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-10 |
| Away | 10-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#78) | 0.5 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#54) | 0.12 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#55) | 0.36 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#48) | 0.476 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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