Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +11 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -3.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -3.9 (-7.1) | 143.3 (-8.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -1.9 (-9.1) | 142.1 (-7.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -3.7 (-7.3) | 145.3 (-10.3) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -3.7 (-7.3) | 145.0 (-10.0) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MIA 91 – 81 GT |
| Mar 5, 2025 | GT 89 – 74 MIA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | GT 80 – 76 MIA |
| Jan 5, 2023 | GT 76 – 70 MIA |
| Feb 10, 2022 | MIA 79 – 70 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-10 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#151) | 7.4 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#170) | 2.03 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#148) | 2.44 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#203) | 0.594 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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