Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | GT -650 MIA +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +15 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | GT -9.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -9.8 (+5.2) | 152.1 (+10.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -8.2 (+6.8) | 150.7 (+12.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -10.7 (+4.3) | 151.0 (+12.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -10.8 (+4.2) | 152.4 (+10.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MIA 91 – 81 GT |
| Feb 24, 2024 | GT 80 – 76 MIA |
| Jan 5, 2023 | GT 76 – 70 MIA |
| Feb 10, 2022 | MIA 79 – 70 GT |
| Jan 29, 2022 | MIA 73 – 62 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 3-17 |
| Home | 14-6 | 7-10 |
| Away | 2-9 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#98) | -1.4 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#113) | -1.19 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#111) | -1.13 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#185) | 0.443 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 57.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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