Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | GT +225 MIA -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +6 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -3.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -2.5 (+8.5) | 147.2 (-1.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -3.7 (+9.7) | 144.9 (+1.1) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -3.6 (+9.6) | 147.0 (-1.0) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -3.1 (+9.1) | 149.0 (-3.0) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | MIA 91 – 81 GT |
| Mar 5, 2025 | GT 89 – 74 MIA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | GT 80 – 76 MIA |
| Feb 10, 2022 | MIA 79 – 70 GT |
| Jan 29, 2022 | MIA 73 – 62 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#144) | 8.9 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#136) | 3.23 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#142) | 3.68 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#140) | 0.629 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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