Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD +170 LUC -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +7 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -3.3 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -2.4 (+9.4) | 132.8 (-3.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -1.6 (+8.6) | 135.2 (-6.2) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -1.8 (+8.8) | 135.1 (-6.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -1.6 (+8.6) | 135.2 (-6.2) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 20, 2024 | BRAD 74 – 62 LUC |
| Mar 4, 2022 | LUC 66 – 50 BRAD |
| Jan 8, 2022 | LUC 78 – 71 BRAD |
| Jan 26, 2021 | LUC 65 – 58 BRAD |
| Jan 24, 2021 | LUC 69 – 56 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 61.9 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#92) | 12.3 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#183) | 2.14 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#177) | 2.58 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#171) | 0.585 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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