Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | LUC -1100 BRAD +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -16.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -15.0 (-8.0) | 137.8 (+11.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -13.1 (-6.1) | 142.1 (+6.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -13.4 (-6.4) | 142.8 (+6.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -13.7 (-6.7) | 141.2 (+7.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 20, 2024 | BRAD 74 – 62 LUC |
| Mar 4, 2022 | LUC 66 – 50 BRAD |
| Feb 10, 2022 | BRAD 68 – 61 LUC |
| Jan 26, 2021 | LUC 65 – 58 BRAD |
| Jan 24, 2021 | LUC 69 – 56 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.9 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#17) | 2.5 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.26 (#13) | -0.80 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.23 (#15) | -0.80 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#18) | 0.451 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 41.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.7% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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