Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +16 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -6.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -6.3 (+9.7) | 132.7 (-16.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -6.6 (+9.4) | 135.7 (-19.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -6.2 (+9.8) | 137.1 (-21.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -5.4 (+10.6) | 135.7 (-19.7) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 20, 2024 | BRAD 74 – 62 LUC |
| Feb 10, 2022 | BRAD 68 – 61 LUC |
| Jan 8, 2022 | LUC 78 – 71 BRAD |
| Jan 26, 2021 | LUC 65 – 58 BRAD |
| Jan 24, 2021 | LUC 69 – 56 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.9 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#23) | 6.2 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#61) | 0.16 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#63) | 0.37 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#53) | 0.513 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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